Why Bills going for it on fourth-and-10 was the wrong decision

With 2:32 left in the game, Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone decided to go for it on fourth-and-10 from the 15 with his team trailing by four.

With three timeouts and the two-minute warning remaining, conventional wisdom would be to kick the field goal and hope your defense can force a punt.

In this case, ESPN’s win probability model agrees that kicking the field goal was the way to go.

In the past 10 seasons, teams have attempted to convert a fourth down with between 8 and 12 yards to go in the 4th quarter or overtime 559 times and earned a first down on 214 of those plays (38.

via ESPN.com – NFL Nation http://ift.tt/1ynwSlt

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